The New Era of Economic Abundance

Airbnb and Uber are achieving accelerated levels of value creation as they defy traditional economic principles of scarcity. Under our new laws of “Copianomics” (the science of choice under abundance), the following two economic forces act as growth catalysts:

  • Long Tail of Supply: Building Inventory with No Time or Capital Constraints

Airbnb is forecasting $10 billion in revenue by 2020 and in order to achieve this, we calculate it needs to add 12 million accommodation listings, the equivalent of 12,000 hotels. This would take a traditional player like Hilton Worldwide nearly a century to achieve at a cost of $170 billion.

  • Blue Ocean of Demand: Expanding Total Addressable Market (TAM) Beyond Traditional Categories

Uber is not only disrupting incumbents, but also gaining access to new tiers of non-customers. In San Francisco, Uber is generating driver revenue of $500 million a year, in excess of three times the $140 million revenue of the taxi market industry as a whole.

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    By: Barbara Gray

    Barbara is an Analyst & Strategy Consultant at Brady Capital Research, the firm she founded in 2011 to come up with new ways to look at and value companies operating in the New Era of Economic Abundance. Barbara was one of the first analysts to publish an in-depth research report on the Sharing Economy (in September 2014) and she is now leveraging her analytical talents and passion for business strategy to guide investors and companies in identifying opportunities created as we shift from the Traditional Era of Scarcity to a New Era of Abundance. Barbara ranked as an All-Star Analyst for four consecutive years, achieving top-three standing each year in the Business Trust Sector in the Brendan Wood annual institutional survey. She has over fifteen years of sell-side equity research in both Canada and the US. Her prior research experience has included broad sectoral coverage such as the North American consumer discretionary and consumer staples, North American auto and Canadian industrial products, energy, and forest products sectors. Barbara has a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) from the University of British Columbia (1993) and earned her CFA designation in 1997.

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